Automated newsroom of weather-au.com · Published · Updated · 3 min read
The model forecasts 60 mm of rain in 24 hours in Charleville (Queensland) on 30 October 2026, above the local threshold of 30 mm. Such a total quickly saturates soils and drainage, especially if it falls within a few hours.
The figures
7 cities tracked by weather-au.com in Australia exceed the 30 mm threshold for this phenomenon. The most affected is Charleville (Queensland) with 60 mm on 30 October 2026. Other cities affected: Mitchell, Walkerston and Hay Point. The event is expected from 30 October 2026 to 31 October 2026. These are model forecasts for the city's grid point, not measurements.
Cities affected
| City | Elevation | Day | Rain in 24 h (mm) | Local threshold (mm) | Monthly normal | Share of monthly normal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charleville | 299 m | 30 October 2026 | 60 | 30.0 | 26.7 | 224 % |
| Mitchell | 340 m | 30 October 2026 | 38 | 30.0 | 37.8 | 101 % |
| Walkerston | 26 m | 31 October 2026 | 37 | 30.0 | 29.6 | 124 % |
| Hay Point | 9 m | 30 October 2026 | 36 | 30.0 | 29.4 | 121 % |
| Mackay | 11 m | 31 October 2026 | 32 | 30.0 | 29.4 | 109 % |
| Barcaldine | 269 m | 30 October 2026 | 32 | 30.0 | 21.9 | 145 % |
| Sarina | 17 m | 30 October 2026 | 31 | 30.0 | 36.1 | 87 % |
Timeline
For Charleville, the model puts the maximum around 20:00. The chart and the table give the hour-by-hour forecast over 14 hours; the quantity shown is the hourly rain (mm) on the day of the peak, when it falls within 72 hours. A narrow peak means a short, intense episode, a broad curve a lasting one.
Timeline
| Hour | Rain in 24 h (mm) |
|---|---|
| 10:00 | 0.2 |
| 11:00 | 3.5 |
| 12:00 | 3.1 |
| 13:00 | 2.1 |
| 14:00 | 0.3 |
| 15:00 | 7.0 |
| 16:00 | 6.5 |
| 17:00 | 3.4 |
| 18:00 | 6.4 |
| 19:00 | 11.9 |
| 20:00 | 14.6 |
| 21:00 | 0.9 |
| 22:00 | 0.0 |
| 23:00 | 0.0 |
The map
The map locates the most affected cities in Australia (at most 7). Where several dots touch, the event is widespread; an isolated dot means a local event, caused by terrain or by a nearby lake or sea.
Historical context
The Charleville station, 2 km from Charleville, has a measurement series going back to 1910 and serves as the reference. Its heaviest one-day rainfall there is 159 mm, recorded on 25 March 1949. The value forecast for Charleville is 38% of it.
The wettest month in the series is March 2010 (325 mm); the one-day rain forecast for Charleville is 18% of it.
In Charleville, the 1991–2020 normal monthly total for October is 27 mm; the one-day rain forecast is 224% of it.
What it means
One millimetre of rain is one litre of water per square metre: 60 mm means 60 litres on every square metre of Charleville in a day. The local threshold of 30 mm comes from the estimated daily 95th percentile of the nearest reference station, with a floor of 30 mm, or is a fixed 50 mm when no station is close; crossing it does not mean a flood, but soil and rivers then have little margin.
What to do
- Stay away from riverbanks, underpasses and basements during the rain peaks: water rises faster than you think.
- Clear gutters, drains and gullies in front of your home before the episode, and move valuables off the ground floor and out of the cellar.
- Never cross a flooded road on foot or by car: 30 cm of water is enough to destabilise a vehicle. Check river levels if your municipality publishes them.
Related pages
This page is a snapshot of the forecast of 30 October 2026. It is not changed afterwards, even if the model moves on: up-to-date forecasts are on the city pages linked on this page.
Method and limits
The figures in this article are computed automatically from the Open-Meteo forecasts for the cities tracked by weather-au.com. An article is written only if a precise threshold is crossed (a 24-hour rainfall above the 95th percentile of the nearest reference station (fixed threshold of 50 mm without a reference series, never below 30 mm)), at most 2 times a week per country, and never twice for the same event. Forecasts are recomputed three times a day, so an event can be spotted up to eight hours late. A forecast is not a measurement and does not replace official warnings: check the official warnings (Bureau of Meteorology) before any decision.